Atlético Madrid host Manchester United at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Tuesday 13 October (kick-off 8 pm BST) in matchday two of the Champions League league phase, with the hosts on four straight wins and United winless in four and travelling with a long injury list. The Opta supercomputer gives Atlético a 48.5% chance, United 27.2% and the draw 24.3%.
Form & what’s at stake
Atlético lost 2-1 at Liverpool on matchday one, which leaves them 25th in the 36-team table, but since that night they have beaten Real Sociedad 3-0, Osasuna 4-0, Real Madrid 2-1 and Alavés 2-1, and they sit second in La Liga, five points behind Barcelona, with six wins, one draw and one defeat from eight. They are in pretty good form.
United beat Sabah 4-0 on matchday one and are fourth in the table on goal difference, yet their domestic run has drifted badly: a 1-0 defeat to Manchester City, a 3-2 loss to Brighton, then 1-1 draws at Fulham and at home to Tottenham, which leaves them 12th in the Premier League with six points from six games. Not the start fans hoped for.
The history favours the hosts. Atlético are unbeaten in the four meetings (two wins, two draws, the last in the 2021-22 round of 16), although Opta also notes that they have won only two of their last 15 against English clubs. United have lost just one of their last 11 against Spanish sides. A point would be a fair night’s work for Michael Carrick. Three would be a statement.
Team news & injuries
Atlético have a fully fit squad, which is a luxury for Diego Simeone at this stage of the season.
United are far less fortunate. Carrick said at his Monday press conference that Luke Shaw and Kobbie Mainoo “didn’t travel due to physical issues”, and Matthijs de Ligt (back), Patrick Dorgu (hamstring), Manuel Ugarte (knee) and Tom Heaton (abdomen) are also out. Benjamin Sesko is also missing, though sources disagree on whether it is a shin or calf problem. Noussair Mazraoui’s status is unclear after the international break, and Carlos Baleba is pushing for his first start after a strong substitute debut at the weekend.
Predicted line-ups
Atlético (3-4-2-1): Oblak – Pubill, Romero, Hancko – Llorente, Barrios, Koke, Giuliano Simeone – Kang-in Lee, Baena – Julián Álvarez.
Manchester United (4-2-3-1): Lammens – Dalot, Yoro, Martínez, Maguire – Baleba, Tielemans – Mbeumo, Fernandes, Cunha – Rashford.
The Atlético XI follows Al Jazeera’s prediction. The United XI is our projection from the absentee list, with the left-back slot the biggest unknown, and neither side has confirmed anything.
The key battle
Watch the flanks. Atlético play with attacking wing-backs; Giuliano Simeone has two goals and two assists in all competitions, and Alex Baena (four goals and two assists this season) drifts inside to find pockets, while a United defence short of natural full-backs will be stretched from the first whistle.
At the other end, Bruno Fernandes, United’s top scorer with four, must carry the creative load without Mainoo behind him. Simeone’s side press hard at home and have won nine of their last 11 league-phase games at the Metropolitano, according to Sports Mole, so expect them to hurt United in transition.
Prediction & tip
United will score, as they usually do against Spanish opposition (35 goals in their last 10 such games, per Al Jazeera), but their injury list is long, and Atlético are in better shape. We expect the hosts to edge it.
Tip: Atlético Madrid to win. Predicted score: Atlético 2-1 Manchester United.
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