Greece had never beaten Germany. On 27 September they did, 1-0, through a 74th-minute goal from Dimitris Kourbelis. Now the Netherlands visit Stadio Toumbas on Thursday 1 October 2026 without Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey, and Xavi must find goals elsewhere against a side that has conceded once in two matches. Kick-off is 19:45 BST.
Form & what’s at stake
Greece surprisingly lead Group A2 with six points from two games. They won 2-1 in Serbia on 24 September, scoring in the 74th and 90+5th minutes after going behind after four, and then beat Germany 1-0 on 27 September with Ivan Jovanović’s side conceding only that one goal across both games. Late, narrow, and very effective.
The Netherlands have four points. Xavi’s team drew 1-1 with Germany on 24 September after Cody Gakpo equalised in the 92nd minute, and Mexx Meerdink then scored twice, one from the penalty spot, in a 2-1 win at Serbia on 27 September that took the Dutch into second place.
A Dutch win takes them top on seven points, one clear of Greece. A Greek win makes it nine from nine, leaves Germany and Serbia still chasing their first victory, and all but settles who goes to the Finals. Both sides play again on Sunday 4 October: Greece host Germany, and the Netherlands host Serbia.
Team news & injuries
Gakpo has withdrawn from the squad with an ankle injury after a heavy challenge from Serbia’s Saša Lukić. Brobbey is also out, and reports say Donyell Malen pulled out with a muscle problem. That leaves Xavi to build his attack around Meerdink, who scored twice on his debut, and Ruben van Bommel, who is likely to start for the first time in a game that will decide who leads the group.
Greece report no significant injuries. Jovanović is expected to keep the XI that beat Germany, with Charalampos Kostoulas and Kourbelis most likely to swap places.
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Predicted line-ups
Greece (4-4-2): Tzolakis – Vagiannidis, Mavropanos, Retsos, Tsimikas – Karetsas, Kourbelis, Zafeiris, Tzolis – Kostoulas, Pavlidis
Netherlands (4-3-3): Verbruggen – Dumfries, Van Hecke, Van Dijk, Van de Ven – Gravenberch, Veerman, Reijnders – Summerville, Meerdink, Van Bommel
Greece: A back four with Tsimikas and Vagiannidis at full-back and a front pair of Kostoulas and Pavlidis, per Sports Mole’s projection. Expect Greece to win the ball in midfield and go straight to goal. It worked against Germany.
Netherlands: Xavi’s side keep possession, with Gravenberch, Veerman and Reijnders in the middle, and Dumfries and Van de Ven providing width. Without Gakpo, the balance changes. Summerville is asked to do a lot on the left.
The key battle
Virgil van Dijk against Vangelis Pavlidis. Greece scored in the 74th and 90+5th minutes against Serbia and in the 74th against Germany, and Pavlidis is the natural outlet for long balls and second phases. If Van Dijk wins the aerial contests, Greece lose their route out of pressure.
Greece vs Netherlands Prediction & tip
Greece have earned their six points, and Toumbas will be loud. Both wins came late, though, and both were narrow. The Netherlands are the better side with a full squad, and a weakened one is still good enough to avoid defeat in Thessaloniki, even if the goals may come more slowly than Xavi would like.
Tip: Netherlands double chance (win or draw). Predicted score: Greece 1-1 Netherlands.
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