The 70th Ballon d’Or will be presented at the London Palladium on Monday 26 October, with the ceremony starting at 8 pm BST. Voting closed on 28 September, so the winner is already decided. The betting market has swung between two men: Harry Kane, who scored 61 goals for Bayern Munich, and Lamine Yamal, who won La Liga and the World Cup with Spain.
Kane is now the clear favourite. Dembélé, last year’s winner, is a long shot.
Where the odds stand
The market changed its mind twice in a month, then settled. On 23 September Spreadex had Kane at 3/5 and Yamal at 5/2. By 5 October, Oddschecker reported Yamal as favourite at 10/11 with Kane at 6/5. On 14 October, bet365 had Kane back in front at 1/2 with Yamal at 2/1. By Monday 19 October, Kane was 4/7 (and 8/13 at some books), and on 22 October William Hill had him at 1/3, which implies about a 75% chance. Yamal was 2/1 and Kylian Mbappé 16/1 at the same book.
My head is spinning just by writing about it. As of now, 23 October, Harry Kane is back as a favourite on 36Vegas’s outrights page.
Lionel Messi and Rodri were much longer. Dembélé was 100/1 at Spreadex on 23 September.
Odds move fast and may differ on different sportsbooks. Treat every price in this article as a snapshot with a date on it.
The case for Kane
The numbers are enormous. Kane scored 61 goals in 51 games for Bayern in 2025-26, including 36 in the Bundesliga, and won the European Golden Shoe. Bayern won the Bundesliga and the DFB-Pokal. He added six goals at the World Cup, where England reached the semi-finals and lost to Argentina.
On the pitch, Kane did everything an English striker has ever done. No Englishman has won the award since Michael Owen in 2001.
His weakness is the same one that has hurt every candidate from his country. Bayern lost the Champions League semi-final to PSG, and England did not win the World Cup.
🔴⚪️ Harry Kane on Ballon d’Or: “My wife would prefer to know the result now, and my family is very nervous!”.
“I understand France Football wish to keep silent so that all the stars can attend, but from my point of view, of course I would like to know the result without having… pic.twitter.com/jVEvRPQQr9
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) October 23, 2026
The case for Yamal
Yamal scored 24 goals and made 18 assists in about 45 appearances. Barcelona won La Liga, and he was named the league’s Player of the Season. He then played 120 minutes in the World Cup final as Spain beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time.
He is still 19 and finished second last year, behind Dembélé. The voters like a young player who wins everything, and in the past two years they have chosen exactly that: Rodri in 2024 and Dembélé in 2025.
His weakness is the Champions League. Barcelona did not win it.
The others
Mbappé scored 42 club goals and finished as the World Cup’s top scorer with 10, but Real Madrid won no trophy, and France finished fourth. Rodri won the World Cup Golden Ball. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has the Champions League medal and 10 goals in the competition. Olise made 31 assists, the most in the world.
PSG have 10 of the 30 names on the shortlist, showing how much the European champions dominated the season, but also why their vote may split.
Lionel Messi also came up strong after his World Cup performance. He sits 4th on the list now, above Rodri, Michael Olise and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
Our call
Kane deserves it and may well win it. The bookmakers think so too, and a market that has Kane at 1/3 after voting closed deserves some respect. But the trophy has gone to winners of the big team prize for two years running, and Yamal has the World Cup, the league and the age. We think it will be a close call.
The ceremony will be held in the UK for the first time. The Ballon d’Or has been moved to London to honour Stanley Matthews, the first winner, in 1956.
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